Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
