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Mounting apprehensions have emerged about the possibility of warfare between East African neighbors, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as hostile discourse has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for passage to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has sparked a fierce verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in 2023 that his country's access to the sea was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Ties between the neighboring nations have often been tense. After a decades-long struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it without sea access.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict broke out in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Recent Statements from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrea's maritime facility of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and implied the intention to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing access to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrea's Response to the Statements

Despite ongoing challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to short statements on social media from Communications Head the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopian requests for maritime entry labeling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a policy of claiming back former lands.

Eritrean authorities warned on mid-September that efforts to justify "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Ground

There have been no reports of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

However, in the country, state television has shown training completions of numerous trainees at multiple army bases.

The head of human resources department of the military, the officer, recently said in an conversation that the army was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Past Roots of the Tension

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was ruled by colonial powers.

After World War II, it was then managed by the British military before turning into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this system and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long civil war occurred, finishing with military reversal in the early 1990s. Independence was then approved by voters in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, resulting in war in 1998.

Although this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries continued at odds.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader the president. The two endorsed a statement that the hostilities was concluded – a move that earned Abiy the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then partners in Ethiopia's previous civil war in Tigray.

But relations have since broken down once more.